Where We Stand—and What Comes Next
It’s been just over a year since the first officially confirmed case of rabies in Cape fur seals was reported in June 2024. Since then, much has changed—and even more has been set in motion. Conservation organisations, government agencies, municipalities, veterinarians, and tourism bodies all responded quickly with emergency protocols and action plans aimed at keeping both humans and seals safe.
But the situation is far from resolved.
Last week, key players from across South Africa and Namibia gathered aboard the SA Agulhas II for a three-day Seal Health Workshop. Representatives from national government, NGOs, tourism, research institutions, and municipalities came together to share what we’ve learned over the past year, assess where we currently stand, and, crucially, identify what still needs to be done.
Confirmed Cases Have Risen—Sharply
At the start, 17 confirmed rabies cases in seals seemed alarming. Now, we’ve reached 81 confirmed rabies cases in the Cape Fur Seals—and that number will continue to rise. We also now know that cases have been detected in Namibia, signalling that this is no longer a localised concern, but a regional one.
Yet despite this, there is still no formal testing protocol in place. According to current practice, only seals that have come into direct conflict with humans or other animals—and are then euthanised—are tested for rabies. That means we’re only identifying the most obvious cases, while the true scale of infection remains unknown.
Concerns were also raised about the lack of transparency from the State Veterinary Services, particularly when it comes to quick reporting and publishing updated confirmed cases.
Testing Only the Obvious Is Not Enough
Marine scientist Dr. Enrico Gennari from Oceans Research made it clear: South Africa has reached a critical point. We can no longer rely on reactive testing. If we want to understand whether rabies infections are plateauing, spreading, or evolving, we need strategic, proactive testing—especially of seal carcasses. He also stressed the need to empower organisations like SeaSearch to lead the monitoring needed to prevent a larger crises.
Consider this: South Africa and Namibia are home to more than 4 million Cape fur seals. In the City of Cape Town alone, roughly 8,000 seals wash ashore dead every year. Yet almost none of these animals are being tested, even though it was this exact phenomenon—and testing of washed-out carcasses—that first triggered the rabies alert in 2024.
We’re essentially ignoring or in the best-case scenario downplaying our most valuable early warning system.
Dangerous Assumptions
Some assumptions are being made that the R-naught (transmission rate) of rabies in seals is low. But without real data from carcass testing, this is just speculation—and speculation is dangerous.
If we assume rabies isn’t spreading efficiently, we risk letting our guard down, while the virus quietly establishes itself across seal colonies.
The implications stretch far beyond conservation. Tourism, ocean users, coastal communities, and even sub-Antarctic islands could all be affected. Waiting for irrefutable evidence before acting is a risk we cannot afford.
The Disease Is Now Endemic
The reality is that rabies is now endemic in Cape fur seals. We are not going back to “normal.” Instead, we need to define a new baseline—one that includes monitoring, risk assessment, and prevention.
There is, however, reason for cautious optimism.
Talks are underway around the development of an aerosolised rabies vaccine specifically for Cape fur seals. This would be a massive step forward in managing an otherwise difficult-to-control disease in a highly mobile marine species. However funding remains a problem along with a lot of restrictions and red tape with respect to regulations around Rabies.
Innovation Offers New Hope
Technology is also stepping in to fill some of the gaps. Drones and thermal cameras are now being incorporated into seal monitoring protocols. In one particularly telling demonstration, Adam Yanley-Keller conducted a test flight with a thermal drone and happened to spot a rabid seal in real-time. Within five minutes, the drone captured what appeared to be a Rabid Seal attacking three others.
This underscores how quickly the disease can spread—but also how technology can help us track it before it escalates further.
What Needs to Happen Next
While the workshop showcased the great strides made in the past year, it also made one thing painfully clear: we are not testing enough. And without that data, we’re in the dark.
Here's what needs to happen:
- Implement proactive testing protocols for seal carcasses, even in the absence of human interaction.
- Secure funding for research and response efforts—waiting for a crisis before acting is both irresponsible and expensive.
- Increase transparency from government bodies regarding confirmed cases and testing results.
- Support the development of vaccines and new technologies that can help track and manage rabies in marine mammals.
- Foster cross-border collaboration between South Africa and Namibia—because viruses don’t respect political boundaries.
A Word of Thanks
A huge thank you goes to the Two Oceans Aquarium Foundation and the City of Cape Town for organising this critical event, and to DFFE for their continued support.
We’re also incredibly grateful to Dr. Brett Gardner to join us from Australia and lead the opening lecture sessions, alongside the innovative work of Adam Yanley-Keller, whose demonstration reminded us all just how fast this disease can move—and how vital it is that we keep up.
Final Thought
One year ago, we had a handful of confirmed cases. Now we have over 80. The warning signs are there, and the solutions are within reach. But if we don’t act—decisively and collaboratively—we risk more than just our seal populations. We risk letting a preventable crisis spiral into something far more serious.
Let’s not let that happen.